Annual transition probabilities
| Variable | Base case value, % | Distribution (SD) | References |
|---|---|---|---|
| Response rate, invitation to attend screening | 73.3 | Beta (9.42) | Heather et al,9 Wilmink et al,11 Vardulaki et al,12 Ashton et al,13 Lindholt et al,14 Norman et al,15 Loh et al,38 O’Kelly and Heather,39 Collin et al,40 Bengtsson et al,41 Krohn et al,42 Grimshaw et al,43 Smith et al,44 Lucarotti et al,45 Lucarotti et al,46 Pleumeekers et al,47 Simoni et al,48 Scott et al,49 Holdsworth,50 Boll et al,51 Vazquez et al,52 Morris et al,53 Wanhainen et al,54 Jamrozik et al55 |
| AAA prevalence | |||
| Small (3–4.4 cm) | 3.12 | Beta (0.38) | CASS Group56 |
| Medium (4.5–5.4 cm) | 0.53 | Beta (0.08) | CASS Group 56 |
| Large (> 5.5 cm) | 0.44 | Beta (0.13) | CASS Group 56 |
| Transition probabilities | |||
| From small to medium | 16.00 | Beta (2.04) | Couto et al109 |
| From medium to large | 49.00 | Beta (10.71) | Couto et al109 |
| Incidental detection | 7.00 | Triangular (6–9) | Wilmink et al,11 Vardulaki et al,12 Ashton et al,13 Lindholt et al,14 Norman et al15 |
| Rupture rate | |||
| Small (3–4.4 cm) | 0.20 | Triangular (0–0.4) | Vardulaki et al110 |
| Medium (4.5–5.4 cm) | 2.00 | Triangular (0.6–2.8) Lederle et al,28 Brown and Powell,63 Vardulaki et al,110 | |
| Large (> 5.5 cm) | 16.00 | Triangular (10–22) | Wilmink et al,11 Vardulaki et al,12 Ashton et al,13 Lindholt et al,14 Norman et al,15 Reed,62 Brown and Powell,63 Lederle 64 |
| Patient refusing surgery | 5.00 | Uniform (3–6) | Wilmink et al,11 Vardulaki et al,12 Lindholt et al14 |
| Rupture in a patient scheduled for surgery | 2.40 | Beta (0.91) | Wilmink et al,11 Vardulaki et al,12 Ashton et al,13 Lindholt et al14 |
| Complications, elective AAA repair | |||
| Death | 4.50 | Beta (0.18) | Dueck et al111,112 |
| Stroke | 0.60 | Beta (0.29) | Johnston and Scobie,113 Johnston114 |
| Myocardial infarction | 5.20 | Beta (0.86) | Johnston and Scobie,113 Johnston114 |
| Long-term dialysis | 0.60 | Beta (0.29) | Johnston and Scobie,113 Johnston114 |
| Prehospital mortality of ruptured AAA | 54.0 | Triangular (34–68) | Wilmink et al,11 Vardulaki et al,12 Ashton et al,13 Lindholt et al,14 Norman et al15 |
| Postoperative mortality of ruptured AAA | 41.00 | Beta (1.0) | Dueck et al111 |
| Complications in patients surviving ruptured AAA | |||
| Stroke | 0.70 | Beta (0.038) | Johnston115 |
| Myocardial infarction | 2.70 | Beta (1.34) | Johnston115 |
| Long-term dialysis | 4.10 | Beta (1.63) | Johnston115 |
SD = standard deviation; AAA = abdominal aortic aneurysm; CASS Group = Chichester Aneurysm Screening Study Group.