Annual transition probabilities
| Variable | Base case value, % | Distribution (SD) | References |
|---|---|---|---|
| Response rate, invitation to attend screening | 73.3 | Beta (9.42) | Heather et al, (9) Wilmink et al, (11) Vardulaki et al, (12) Ashton et al, (13) Lindholt et al, (14) Norman et al, (15) Loh et al, (38) O’Kelly and Heather, (39) Collin et al, (40) Bengtsson et al, (41) Krohn et al, (42) Grimshaw et al, (43) Smith et al, (44) Lucarotti et al, (45) Lucarotti et al, (46) Pleumeekers et al, (47) Simoni et al, (48) Scott et al, (49) Holdsworth, (50) Boll et al, (51) Vazquez et al, (52) Morris et al, (53) Wanhainen et al, (54) Jamrozik et al (55) |
| AAA prevalence | |||
| Small (3–4.4 cm) | 3.12 | Beta (0.38) | CASS Group (56) |
| Medium (4.5–5.4 cm) | 0.53 | Beta (0.08) | CASS Group (56) |
| Large (> 5.5 cm) | 0.44 | Beta (0.13) | CASS Group (56) |
| Transition probabilities | |||
| From small to medium | 16.00 | Beta (2.04) | Couto et al (109) |
| From medium to large | 49.00 | Beta (10.71) | Couto et al (109) |
| Incidental detection | 7.00 | Triangular (6–9) | Wilmink et al, (11) Vardulaki et al, (12) Ashton et al, (13) Lindholt et al, (14) Norman et al (15) |
| Rupture rate | |||
| Small (3–4.4 cm) | 0.20 | Triangular (0–0.4) | Vardulaki et al (110) |
| Medium (4.5–5.4 cm) | 2.00 | Triangular (0.6–2.8) Lederle et al, (28) Brown and Powell, (63) Vardulaki et al, (110) | |
| Large (> 5.5 cm) | 16.00 | Triangular (10–22) | Wilmink et al, (11) Vardulaki et al, (12) Ashton et al, (13) Lindholt et al, (14) Norman et al, (15) Reed, (62) Brown and Powell, (63) Lederle (64) |
| Patient refusing surgery | 5.00 | Uniform (3–6) | Wilmink et al, (11) Vardulaki et al, (12) Lindholt et al (14) |
| Rupture in a patient scheduled for surgery | 2.40 | Beta (0.91) | Wilmink et al, (11) Vardulaki et al, (12) Ashton et al, (13) Lindholt et al (14) |
| Complications, elective AAA repair | |||
| Death | 4.50 | Beta (0.18) | Dueck et al (111), (112) |
| Stroke | 0.60 | Beta (0.29) | Johnston and Scobie, (113) Johnston (114) |
| Myocardial infarction | 5.20 | Beta (0.86) | Johnston and Scobie, (113) Johnston (114) |
| Long-term dialysis | 0.60 | Beta (0.29) | Johnston and Scobie, (113) Johnston (114) |
| Prehospital mortality of ruptured AAA | 54.0 | Triangular (34–68) | Wilmink et al, (11) Vardulaki et al, (12) Ashton et al, (13) Lindholt et al, (14) Norman et al (15) |
| Postoperative mortality of ruptured AAA | 41.00 | Beta (1.0) | Dueck et al (111) |
| Complications in patients surviving ruptured AAA | |||
| Stroke | 0.70 | Beta (0.038) | Johnston (115) |
| Myocardial infarction | 2.70 | Beta (1.34) | Johnston (115) |
| Long-term dialysis | 4.10 | Beta (1.63) | Johnston (115) |
SD = standard deviation; AAA = abdominal aortic aneurysm; CASS Group = Chichester Aneurysm Screening Study Group.