Primer on medical decision analysis: Part 5--Working with Markov processes

Med Decis Making. 1997 Apr-Jun;17(2):152-9. doi: 10.1177/0272989X9701700205.

Abstract

Clinical decisions often have long-term implications. Analysis encounter difficulties when employing conventional decision-analytic methods to model these scenarios. This occurs because probability and utility variables often change with time and conventional decision trees do not easily capture this dynamic quality. A Markov analysis performed with current computer software programs provides a flexible and convenient means of modeling long-term scenarios. However, novices should be aware of several potential pitfalls when attempting to use these programs. When deciding how to model a given clinical problem, the analyst must weigh the simplicity and clarity of a conventional tree against the fidelity of a Markov analysis. In direct comparisons, both approaches gave the same qualitative answers.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Biopsy
  • Decision Making, Computer-Assisted
  • Decision Support Techniques*
  • Decision Trees*
  • Giant Cell Arteritis / complications
  • Giant Cell Arteritis / drug therapy
  • Giant Cell Arteritis / pathology
  • Humans
  • Markov Chains*
  • Outcome Assessment, Health Care
  • Prednisone / adverse effects
  • Prednisone / therapeutic use
  • Probability
  • Software
  • Temporal Arteries

Substances

  • Prednisone