We show that the joint behavior of stock prices and TFP favors a view of business cycles
driven largely by a shock that does not affect productivity in the short run – and therefore does …

There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent
driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of …

It is often argued that changes in expectation are an important driving force of the business
cycle. However, it is well known that changes in expectations cannot generate positive co-…

A major goal of macroeconomic policy throughout industrialized countries is to achieve low
and stable inflation. There are many reasons advanced in defense of this goal. One reason …

Are business cycles mainly a response to persistent exogenous shocks, or do they instead
reflect a strong endogenous mechanism which produces recurrent boom-bust phenomena? …

This paper explores a theory of business cycles in which recessions and booms arise due
to difficulties encountered by agents in properly forecasting the economy's future needs in …

The introduction and diffusion of personal computers are widely viewed as a technological
revolution. Using US metropolitan area–level panel data, this paper asks whether links …

In this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions
in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market …

This paper argues that several of the poor labor market outcomes observed in the Great
Recession can be traced back to a change in the demand pattern for skilled workers that started …

This paper examines whether negative innovations to GNP are more or less persistent than
positive innovations. We find that once we allow for the impulse response of GNP to be …